What would Harry Houdini do?
There is now only one conceivable way in which the general election might become competitive. It involves a further groundbreaking realignment on the right, in which the Tories and Reform effectively become one.
Clearly there has already been a massive shift on the right towards populism in recent years, particularly in the sphere of the so-called ‘culture wars’. Following the Brexit debacle, which saw the mainstream, gently pro-European faction in the Tory Party defeated, the direction has been towards rhetoric which sits pretty comfortably with Meloni, Orbán and Trump.
Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak probably aren’t natural bedfellows of their more radical colleagues who spout ideological gibberish. Big Dog proved in office that he has no framework of consistent beliefs beyond his own self-advancement, while Dishy is an instinctive managerialist. But they have both been completely trapped — perhaps claptrapped — by Tory MPs and the right-wing leanings of the aged party constituency membership.
A Conservative leader can only hold on to power if they say they’ll stop the boats, pick fights over free speech and pledge allegiance to the destruction of wokery in all its forms.
Liz Truss, during her brief tenure in Downing Street, seemed to have lost the plot entirely — not only embracing all the socially conservative rhetoric, but also launching head-first into an uncosted tax-cutting frenzy. It’s hard to credit how a laissez-faire, right-wing government managed to spook the markets so badly, but we were hours away from final-salary pension schemes imploding.
So by 2024, the Tory Party is barely holding itself together and languishing way behind Labour in the polls. Sir Keir Starmer leads the incumbent PM on all the metrics designed to gauge a good leader. And Reform stalks the Conservatives from the right — with their percentage in the polls fluctuating, but looking pretty threatening.
There are basically two ways in which this plays out. The most likely scenario, prima facie, is that Sunak does badly in the May elections, any plot to oust him is unsuccessful and he plods on to a massive defeat in the autumn. If we take Reform’s rhetoric at face value, they have no intention of providing a last-minute reprieve for the Conservatives. They are happy to take enough votes from them in certain constituencies to help Labour win.
If this particular timeline unfolds, the fundamental reshaping of the right in the UK will take place in the aftermath of a catastrophic defeat. Many Tories accept that this is the case and a number have already jumped ship.
A proportion of those on the right probably feel their best chance to seize full ideological control is after Sunak has been battered in an election. Step forward Suella Braverman or Kemi Badenoch to remodel the party from the radical right — probably reaching out to former Reform supporters or hoovering them up.
But what of the second scenario? This is the nuclear option, but it’s the dream of those Tories who still want to believe they could pull off the impossible. What if Sunak were toppled after May (some claim it would only take a few more letters to force a contest) and were replaced this year with yet another Tory leader. This latest instalment of the farce would not involve the coronation of a ‘moderate’ such as Mordaunt. More of a full-scale coup d’etat and a last, crackpot throw of the political dice behind a right-winger.
The new PM would reach out to Reform and embrace their agenda. Overtures would be made to the likes of Tice and Farage to rejoin, perhaps with the promise of very safe seats. At the very least, there could be some kind of agreement for Reform to throw its weight behind a radicalised Tory agenda.
Of course, this decisive shift would risk alienating more moderate Conservative voters, who might turn in even greater numbers to the Lib Dems in the Blue Wall. But, in theory, most of Reform’s current voters would probably back the Tories in this situation — regardless of whether their original loyalties were Conservative or Labour.
When you combine the Tory and Reform vote in most opinion polls, it would still trail Labour. But not by an enormous margin. We might be looking at low 40s facing off against mid 30s, for instance. The dynamic would have changed and there would be a new momentum. Perhaps the election campaign would become a much fiercer fight and the Tory/Reform bloc could hope to be the largest party in a hung parliament.
Yes, it’s crazy talk, but there are plenty of Tories capable of talking crazy right now. While it goes without saying that there are a thousand ways in which the strategy could backfire, it’s surely the only conceivable s**t-or-bust route to keeping the 2024 election alive for Matthew Parker Street.
The Tory Party right now is submerged in a tank of water, wearing a straitjacket and handcuffs. They are going to drown. And that’s when the spirit of Harry Houdini might just start to kick in.
