New perspectives: five ways working life may change post-Covid
Much of the discussion around the impact of Covid-19 on the world of employment has surrounded the phenomenon of remote working. It’s been a particular talking point in the UK, where there has been more of a shift towards the home office than in some countries in continental Europe.
While I don’t underestimate the importance of the switch to Teams and Zoom and how it might change business culture long-term, the immediate outcomes are, I suggest, fairly easy to anticipate.
Yes, the pandemic has shown us that people can work from home successfully. Yes, that trend is likely to continue, with people rejecting the idea of needless commutes by car or train. We are unlikely to be fobbed off with the idea that we can only work in person, in a set location, or as part of a communal group. It’s quite possible we are witnessing the death of ‘presenteeism’.
But no, the idea of the workplace — or more specifically the office, because (let’s face it) most home workers are white collar — is not dead. Some people will want to return because of the camaraderie and social interaction. They find home working isolating and challenging. Organisations will see the advantage in the cross-fertilisation of ideas and serendipitous encounters that take place around non-distanced desks and corona-free water-coolers.
There will likely be a gradual drift back to offices over a period of a year or two, with many white-collar workers opting for a hybrid existence. A couple of days a week commuting and the remaining time at home perhaps.
At that point, the economics of the phenomenon will actually become more interesting and important than the social and psychological implications. Will companies need smaller offices? Will they be in different locations? How much downward pressure might there be on rents?
If offices contract and there are fewer people commuting on a daily basis, do governments end up subsidising public transport more heavily due to a lack of fare income? Can the sandwich bars, pubs, restaurants and coffee shops sustain their businesses and jobs?
All questions for the months ahead, stemming directly from the wfh phenomenon. We may, however, see some other quite significant changes down the line.
As a starting point, here are five predictions for the working world over the next couple of years:
Timescales will shrink
One of the extraordinary aspects of the pandemic has been the way in which we have seen instant responses to changing circumstances and expedited decision-making within organisations. In my own sphere of training and teaching, it was astonishing how quickly face-to-face delivery was abandoned in favour of virtual classes. Those of us who worked in this sector had seen the issue debated for years, but necessity is always the mother of invention. Everything seemed to turn 180 degrees on the spot.
On a much grander scale, look at the way in which governments and pharmaceutical businesses have worked to speed up the process of the R&D, trials and approvals for vaccines. My suggestion is that as business returns to something more like normal, people will think bigger and have greater belief that the impossible is now possible. Particularly in terms of the speed at which the impossible happens. Inertia and change at a snail’s pace will no longer be thought acceptable. JFDI.
Vaccines will divide us
I don’t foresee the post-Covid workplace as being an easy or particularly harmonious environment. One very obvious division may be between those who are vaccinated and those who are not. Employment lawyers question whether companies have the legal right to require their workers to take a jab.
Some difficult scenarios are easily imaginable: employers meeting resistance to vaccination (a particular problem if it occurs in settings such as social care and health provision); other staff refusing to work until colleagues are vaccinated; and issues of privacy regarding the vaccine status of particular individuals.
These will be not be easy issues for employers to resolve alone and they may well turn to government for guidance, advice and even primary legislation.
New hierarchies will form
My sense is that the Zoom culture is strangely egalitarian. One person on a screen is much like another on a screen and it’s hard to assert the same presence and authority online that people can in a meeting room or office. As we move into the hybrid working world, a new dynamic will emerge which may start to reshape hierarchy.
There will be people who are primarily office based and others who are more oriented towards working from home. The office workers may find that they are closer to the decision-making process within an organisation and front of mind for opportunities and promotions (an argument tentatively advanced by the UK government in their bid to get people back to work after the summer). Those attached to wfh may enjoy a better quality of life and a greater degree of balance, on the other hand. While they may be the envy of their colleagues, will they find themselves ‘semi-detached’ from power and excluded from information and intelligence passed on in communal kitchens and meeting rooms?
Travel will become exceptional
One of the best things to come out of the pandemic may be the sense that it isn’t necessary to hold meetings face-to-face. Why drive to see a client or catch a train to a seminar, when you’ve been quite happily been doing both of these things online? Does Jo really need to fly to Barcelona again? Is it absolutely essential for Sandeep to be out of the office for two days for a meeting a few hundred miles away? I predict that people will find it harder to justify travel in terms of its financial and environmental costs. And in a stuttering economy, with many businesses feeling the pinch, isn’t its continuing disappearance essential to a healthy bottom line?
Etiquette will change
Many of the trappings of the traditional workplace are called into question by the Covid pandemic. Assuming everyone eventually receives a vaccine, there should be no reason to fear close proximity and the resumption of the types of interaction normal for an office, call centre or factory. But will this happen in practice?
I predict that psychological confidence will lag behind scientific reality. It will seem very odd to crowd once again into meeting rooms, jostle for space in a training session, or lean over the shoulder of a colleague to point to something on their screen. There will be a reluctance to resume the rituals of shared coffee runs or to grab sandwiches and chicken skewers from a shared buffet. As workplaces begin to fill, they may emit a decidedly uneasy aura. And one that will take quite a time to shift.
Phil Woodford is a writer, trainer and lecturer, specialising in marketing communications and creativity. He holds a degree in sociology from the London School of Economics and master’s degree in occupational and business psychology from Kingston University London. Phil co-hosts a weekly news review show on Colourful Radio, broadcast from London’s Africa Centre.
