Is Harris-Schmaltz a winning ticket?
I seem to remember the US talkshow host David Letterman once saying there’s no business like showbusiness, but there are several businesses like accounting. The Democratic Party seemed to take this warning to heart this week, eschewing managerial caution, safety and reassurance in favour of what felt like self-congratulatory and complacent back-slapping, sprinkled with a whole bucket-load of glitz. This was shooowwbizzzzz, folks.
The hammed-up musical roll calls, slick movies, celebrity appearances and all-star cast of party grandees left me feeling slightly nervous.
Of course, it’s great that the Democrats are now projecting real optimism with a credible candidate. The debacle of the Biden vs Trump debate seems like another era. But Harris is a few points behind where Hillary Clinton was at an equivalent point in 2016 and a few more points behind Biden’s winning position in 2020. What’s more, Trump leads on the big issues of the economy and inflation, as well as migration and crime.
So I would urge a lot of caution. This is going to very close. And a scenario in which Harris wins the popular vote, but loses the electoral college — the fate that befell Clinton — is still probably the one I would bet on, if forced to put some money down on the table.
Strangely, the thing that gave me most hope at the DNC was not the glitz and glamour. It was the schmaltz. Because perhaps that really is the glue that potentially brings America together across the political divide. And we saw it in evidence in the display of affection from Tim Walz’s kids and the football team that adored their beloved coach.
Initially, I was hoping for Josh Shapiro as Harris’ running mate, as he’s a formidable communicator, but Walz is winning me over. He brought us the most authentic moments at the DNC.
Here was a guy, it was briefed, who’d never spoken with an autocue before. He’s just your down-at-home dad. Family, school, the military and sports are what have shaped his life. And he’s used all of them to have a positive influence on the lives of others.
In recent years, people in America (as in a lot of countries) have become more and more divided into two warring camps. Coastal vs hinterland. Liberal vs conservative. Included vs excluded.
Spending a few days on the East Coast back in April, I couldn’t have seen fewer signs of a nation in turmoil or on the brink of civil war. Life seemed to continue in a pretty civilised way in historic Boston and people chatted politely to me as I glimpsed the near-total eclipse at a beach in Rockport, MA.
Arguably I encountered a bit more of the real US when I joined locals for a ‘home show’ in Rhode Island. This was a world of ornate flower displays; giant jacuzzis; pneumatic vacuum elevators; and flagpoles for your back yard. Ladies offered me peculiar treatments for the bags under my eyes, while across the aisle, another stand was busy selling deer-tick repellent.
If you were looking for Kevin McCloud or George Clarke to pop up in this amazing space, you’d have been sorely disappointed. All the same, I was still getting a snapshot of a safe, solid, dependable — and reasonably prosperous — America. A window on a world that was entirely real, but removed from other co-existing realities.
There’s the version — or vision — of the USA that I was experiencing as a visitor. But there is another one out there that is much more frightened, much less confident and much less affluent. And these two worlds live largely apart, only to collide at election times.
Committed Trump voters will never be won over. Committed liberals are largely in the bag for Harris, notwithstanding the concerns over the Biden administration’s stance on the tragic war in Gaza. Harris and Walz need to find a way of talking to a relatively small group of people who are non-committal or undecided at this stage. (If they happen to be in Pennsylvania or Arizona or one of the seven or eight states that hold the key to the White House, so much the better.)
I wonder whether the messaging that wins these people over isn’t overly political, but rather cultural. It’s the age-old story told by Walz of giving your neighbour a helping hand and offering people from modest backgrounds a chance to succeed. Trump’s politics are entirely cynical and a lot of people are won over by them. But if there’s one thing that is indisputably American and capable of crossing the schismatic divide, it’s sentimentality.
